National Spirits Are Off 4.19%. Okay — Now What Do You Actually Do With That?

Do you ever read an industry headline like this one and think, what am I supposed to do with this?

The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America just put out its latest forecast: core spirits are down 4.19% (rolling 12 months through Q1 2026, per SipSource), and the outlook is to "stabilize" over the coming year while staying in negative territory. WSWA's read is worth paying attention to — they see more of the national picture than any of us do.

But if you're the one out on the street Monday morning, a number like that leaves you hanging. Down 4.19%. Sounds bad. Supposed to get a little better — but no real why attached, and no play attached either. So what are you, the person actually carrying the bag, supposed to DO with it?

Here's our answer: stop managing off the national average and get local. Find your winners and ride them.

Because the headline can't tell you the one thing that matters — the market isn't one thing moving one direction. We looked at the receipts filed under Texas TABC permits to see what's actually happening on our own ground. Two things jumped out.

Texas isn't sliding like the national number.

Texas on-premise liquor receipts went from $1.476B in Q1 2025 to $1.487B in Q1 2026 — up 0.73%. (Different measure than WSWA's national depletion figure, so read it as direction, not a decimal match — but the direction matters.) The national story and the Texas story are not the same story.

And even inside Texas, the money is concentrated.

Of 25,596 on-premise accounts open and reporting, the top 30.6% drive 80% of all spirits volume. Some accounts in every single market have figured something out — even in a year everyone's calling tough — and they're taking share while the category supposedly shrinks.

That's the whole game right now. In a soft market you don't win by spreading thin across more doors. You win by knowing exactly which ~7,800 Texas accounts actually move volume, getting your brand in front of them, and never letting one go quiet. That's what WhiskeyRiver does: it shows you the winning accounts in your market — by city, segment and trend — and tracks your activity against each one so nothing slips.

The forecast can stay vague. Your next move doesn't have to.

Give WhiskeyRiver a try today.

Source: TABC-permit sales receipts, Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026. National figure: WSWA SipSource (Shanken News Daily, July 2, 2026).